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The selection of Gov. Tim Walz as a Democratic vice presidential candidate could trigger a cascade of political leadership changes in Minnesota — if the newly minted ticket wins.
But it’s important to note at the outset that the timing of any Walz departure from the Minnesota governor’s office would dictate everything.
Here are the ways the dominoes could fall:
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It wouldn’t be in his interest to give up the governor’s office until after the election results are known, because he can remain governor if he and Vice President Kamala Harris lose the presidential election in November.
Walz has two-plus years remaining on his second term. He hasn’t even said what would come after 2026, leaving the door open to another run for governor or something else. Minnesota doesn’t have term limits.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a fellow Democrat, would become Minnesota’s next governor under succession steps laid out in the Minnesota Constitution. Flanagan would be the first female governor in Minnesota and the first Native American woman to serve as governor in the country. She is a member of the White Earth Nation.
She would be the eighth lieutenant governor in Minnesota to climb the ladder. It last happened in 1976 when then-Gov. Wendell Anderson resigned his office to take the U.S. Senate seat opened by Walter Mondale’s impending ascension to the vice presidency. Rudy Perpich moved up.
In 1943, Lt. Gov. Edward Thye became governor upon the resignation of Gov. Harold Stassen.
Two other resignations in the 1800s resulted in a political promotion as well.
Three times in Minnesota’s history, a governor’s death in office led to the lieutenant governor moving up, according to records kept by the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library.
Under the line of succession, the Minnesota Senate president moves up.
This is where things get trickier and murkier.
Currently, that’s four-term DFL Sen. Bobby Joe Champion of Minneapolis. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get the job.
It depends on a lot of factors, including which party controls the Senate when Walz submits his resignation.
The 67-member chamber is currently tied 33-33. Sen. Kelly Morrison, DFL-Deephaven, resigned her seat to run for Congress in Minnesota’s 3rd District. A special election in November will determine who wins the seat — and the Senate majority heading into the 2025 session.
If Democrats win the seat there could be stability in the Senate president’s chair. The party could also opt to elect a new president if Champion decided he didn’t want the lieutenant governor’s post; after all, he could always try to reclaim the Senate president post later given that a new one of those would be chosen next.
Last month, Champion told reporters that he’s not yet considering what a climb up the political ranks might mean for him.
If Republicans win, upon the election certification of the new senator — as soon as mid-November — they could move to have that person sworn in to give the GOP a 34-33 edge.
When the Legislature reconvenes in mid-January, the party could put one of their own in the Senate president’s seat.
Or GOP members could work a political angle, perhaps installing a swing-seat Democrat as president with the awareness that person would be tugged up the chain. That would open that elevated senator’s seat for another special election.
It would be largely up to him. He could resign soon after the election or wait a bit.
Walz would not be sworn in as vice president until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, so conceivably he could keep the Minnesota post right up until then.
Given that the Legislature comes back on Jan. 14 for the next session, the musical chairs in the Senate could be settled soon after that and give Walz a clear picture of what would be in the rearview mirror.
The Senate would be down a member until that resulting special election is held. There is a possibility it could be done prior to the 2025 session, but also the possibility it wouldn’t occur until February or March.
That might mean a 33-33 party split for the opening weeks of a budget-year session. The state House majority, currently held by Democrats, is also at stake this November.
It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen problems generated by the ascendancy of a senator to the lieutenant governor post in Minnesota. In 2017, then Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Lt. Gov. Tina Smith to the U.S. Senate seat left open by Al Franken’s resignation.
Then-Senate President Michelle Fischbach, a Republican who now represents a vast swath of western Minnesota in Congress, moved up to the role of lieutenant governor. But Fischbach tried to maintain that she could serve as both Lieutenant Governor and Senate President.
Democrats sued Fischbach twice. In the first lawsuit, a Ramsey County district judge ruled that the Senate had the duty to determine eligibility of its members and the case was dismissed. Democrats sued Fischbach again a few months later, but the case was dropped when the legislative session ended and Fischbach resigned from the Senate to accept an invitation to be Tim Pawlenty’s running mate in the governor’s race. They ultimately lost.
